Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is...

8th February 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.)

CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. But this was largely due to the usual volatility in food and tourism prices around Chinese New Year. We think consumer price inflation will...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Focus

Has a new productivity boom begun?

The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still...

7th February 2024 · 12 mins read

Global Economics Update

Assessing the threat of a new bout of inflation

We have argued that most of the inflation battle is already won and fears that “ the last mile will be the hardest” are overdone. But during our central bank online Drop-In session last week, clients...

7th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen...

7th February 2024 · 1 min read

Event

US Drop-In: January CPI and the timing of the start of Fed easing

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What does the recent data flow and Jerome Powell’s pushback mean for the timing of the first Fed rate cut? How quickly and easily will core inflation get back to target?

Africa Rapid Response

Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With...

6th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts

With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data...

6th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt

January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic...

5th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)

Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the...

5th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts

The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts

Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Powell preaches caution amid jobs bonanza

Based on the steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through this week’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Monetary policy forecast changes, Korea inflation

We are pushing back the timing of when we think the central banks of the Philippines and Indonesia will cut interest rates. Although inflation is within target in both countries and domestic demand is...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity

President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read