Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

12th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Event

Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates

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Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati

UK Economics Update

April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert

We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and...

11th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (February 2024)

February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest.

11th March 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024)

CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent...

11th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little...

8th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

New productive buzzwords

China’s leadership is increasingly talking about “New Productive Forces” as the key to the country’s future economic success – harnessing them was the first Major Task for 2024 in the government Work...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

BoE’s inflation forecast looks like an outlier

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s big downward revision to its CPI inflation forecast in this week’s Budget brings it more into line with our forecast for inflation to fall below the 2.0% target...

8th March 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation

We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to...

8th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Shunto bonanza opens door to March rate hike

Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. Meanwhile, with childbirths hitting a...

8th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink

Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There...

7th March 2024 · 8 mins read