Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth

Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation

The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs

We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro...

26th July 2024 · 11 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Services inflation slowing but broadening

The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy

A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July)

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October.

26th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Tokyo CPI (July 24)

The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, though we’re sticking to our...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2024)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, 4.45% y/y in the first half of July, was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation. This, coming alongside...

25th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Sticky services inflation raises upside risks

Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us...

25th July 2024 · 16 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather...

25th July 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Olympics no game changer for French economy

Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP...

24th July 2024 · 4 mins read