Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Could the RBA still hike rates?

Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs suggest global industry off to a weak start in Q3

The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity slowed sharply at the start of Q3, and that activity will probably slow further. But weaker activity hasn’t taken the heat out of...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy loosening to begin by year-end

The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging...

31st July 2024 · 0 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Cost Index (Q2)

The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Argentina lift capital controls?

The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of...

31st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (July 2024)

The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD

We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin...

31st July 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany and Spain HICP (July)

The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Is EM central bank independence under threat?

Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Further easing on the cards

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has...

29th July 2024 · 2 mins read