India Economics Update

RBI to ease policy by year-end

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike

We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this...

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024)

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global...

7th August 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside...

7th August 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week

We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we...

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will the BCB hike rates?

The minutes to last week’s central bank meeting in Brazil raised the possibility that policymakers will respond to the worsening inflation outlook by hiking interest rates. And despite the sharp shift...

6th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Data Response

Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait

Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Rental growth will continue to lag income growth

While faster wage growth should eventually result in a significant pick-up in rental inflation, it seems likely that rental growth will trail income growth for the foreseeable future. That means that...

5th August 2024 · 9 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half...

2nd August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence

We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read