US Economics Update All signs still point to lower shelter inflation Although the BLS’s new tenant rent index has overstated the speed of the slowdown in shelter inflation, the leading indicators remain unanimous in their message that the slowdown is still coming. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to rebound in activity in most DMs in Q2 The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth picked up in most advanced economies at the start of Q2. But stronger services activity risks keeping price pressures elevated in some DMs. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said... 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024 The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024) Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation will remain around 2% this year We now expect services inflation to remain around 2% this year as a fading tailwind from soaring hotel and package tour prices will be offset by stronger labour cost growth. The upshot is that the... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent June rate cut Budget 2024 made a bit of a splash thanks to the unexpected changes to capital gains taxes, but we do not think the new net spending measures were large enough to change the outlook for GDP growth or... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting? Movements in the exchange rate tend to have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation. So while the euro might weaken if monetary policy in the euro-zone and US were to diverge, we think it would... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
