Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer

The continued decline in core inflation will make it difficult for Norges Bank to stick to its current guidance that it will leave interest rates unchanged until Q4. We suspect that the Bank will...

26th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ’s confidence in sustained 2% inflation growing

With pay hikes becoming increasingly widespread, the Bank of Japan is becoming more confident that it can meet its inflation target on a sustained basis. But with underlying inflation now clearly...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Plunge in Tokyo inflation won’t prevent BoJ tightening

The plunge in inflation in Tokyo in April was mostly due to a sharp fall in high school tuition fees and the provision of free school meals. The impact of those policy changes on nationwide inflation...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA more likely to hike than not

The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

It would take a lot more dollar strength to “break the economy”

The US dollar would have to appreciate a lot further before having significant effects on the global economy and financial system. A key risk to watch for is the widening policy divergence between the...

25th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected...

25th April 2024 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon

Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still...

25th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month...

25th April 2024 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2024)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.6% y/y in the first half of April, coming alongside the delay to rate cuts in the US (and fall in the peso), mean that Banxico is all but certain to...

24th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: A slower economy risks turning MPC doveish

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that...

24th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2024)

With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future.

24th April 2024 · 2 mins read