US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank still in hawkish mood Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show recovery in global industry still an EM story The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the BoC risk diverging from the Fed? Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large... 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to return to target by mid-year Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will high labour cost growth thwart disinflation? Rapid growth in unit labour costs poses an upside risk to core inflation in many advanced economies. However, firms’ pricing power is weakening and we think that it will continue to do so. As a result... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the regional recovery at the start of Q2. In Turkey and Russia, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (April) The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates... 2nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Global Inflation Watch – Bumpy ride back to target 1715176800 Is progress stalling on efforts to get inflation under control? Why are price pressures proving more stubborn than expected?
