Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2024)

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts

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We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th

Event

Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle?

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We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect

We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy...

14th May 2024 · 6 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the middle of the year. We remain comfortable with...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr. 2024)

PPI deflation eased and CPI inflation rose in March, but they remained relatively subdued compared with pre-pandemic norms. We think inflation will continue to edge up in the near term. But persistent...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run

The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias

The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Was April the sweetest or the cruellest month?

After a quiet week for data this week, following April’s softer Employment Report, things will heat up again next week with April’s CPI report.

10th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt

Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3

The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (April 2024)

The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on...

10th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s Pemex problem, Copom’s politicisation

Comments from Mexican officials this week that the government could take some of Pemex’s debts onto its own balance sheet would ease the firm's default risks. But it would come at the expense of a...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto

The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift...

10th May 2024 · 8 mins read