UK Economics Update

Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates

We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Update

Healthcare hiring & spending spree has further to run

The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2024)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by another jump in agricultural price inflation. But core services inflation remained uncomfortably strong...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB

We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2024)

Today’s May flash PMI survey will have provided the Bank of England with some comfort after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for April. Crucially, the further fall in the services...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Korea Policy Rate (May 2024)

The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, of more interest will be the tone of the central bank’s statement and Governor Rhee’s press...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While GDP growth in the Andean economies will be stronger this year than last, the opposite...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased further to 5.2% y/y in April but the Reserve Bank will want to see more evidence that inflation and, crucially, inflation expectations are coming under...

22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait

Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the...

22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

In response to the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April, we now think that the Bank of England will first cut interest rates in August rather than in June. And the data cast some doubt...

22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (May 2024)

The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we...

21st May 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being...

21st May 2024 · 3 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read