Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) Even though the manufacturing PMI fell to a fresh low in May, we still think that the economy returned to growth this quarter. Meanwhile, the recent strength in crude oil prices is boosting price... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising inflation expectations weaken the doves' case The recent rebound in inflation expectations is significant not only because it provides another reason to expect core inflation to trend higher this year, but also because it further weakens the case... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The firming in core inflation and the new-found strength of retail sales will increase speculation that the Bank of Canada is going to increase interest rates again later this year. Our view is still... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Most of the slowdown in inflation in April was driven by volatile fresh food prices. But the moderation in underlying inflation underlines that the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target remains out of... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply in April, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in June. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) In the context of the hawkish tone of the RBI’s latest policy minutes, the large jump in core CPI inflation last month paves the way for a rate hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting in June. 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why has Brazilian inflation stayed so low? The recent weakness of Brazilian inflation appears to be due in part to persistently weak food inflation, but more importantly it looks like the large output gap in the economy has dragged down core... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 3.0% m/m rise in gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to a 14-month high of 2.5% in April, but the more muted 0.1% m/m gain in core CPI suggests that the surge in underlying inflation in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
