US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep) Although core CPI prices increased by 0.3% m/m for a second consecutive month in September, our calculations suggest that core PCE prices increased by 0.20% m/m which, at an annualised pace, is only... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September 2024) Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year. 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 1729173600 Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The second consecutive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate, to 26.4% y/y in September, on the back of electricity and fuel price hikes further reduces the chances of a first interest rate cut... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) September’s drop in inflation in Sweden will reinforce the Riksbank’s inclination to keep cutting interest rates at the next few meetings. 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Central banks will shrug off oil price risks With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Oil prices would need to jump further to influence BoE While the Bank of England is watching the developments in the Middle East “very closely”, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the Bank could start cutting interest rates more aggressively if the good... 4th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
