Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers are the only doves left in town Poland’s MPC bucked the regional trend today by retaining its ultra-dovish stance. However, we think that Polish policymakers will soon start to follow their neighbours. Inflation is likely to rise... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What do tariffs mean for inflation? The tariffs announced so far are unlikely to boost Canadian inflation by much more than 0.1% pt, while the effects on economic growth should also be small. We therefore doubt that they will have much... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s decline in core inflation won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates in September. But with price pressures building only slowly, the subsequent tightening cycle will be very slow. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation jumped to 14.4% y/y last month on the back of recent administered price hikes, but we still think that the next move in interest rates will be down. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation data show little change in price pressures last month beyond a mild boost from higher oil prices. Tariffs may start to inject some additional volatility into the price data soon but... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.6% y/y last month, from 4.5% y/y in June, was due almost entirely to a rise in energy inflation, while core inflation fell to an 18-month low. The next... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank hawkish, Norwegian housing recovering The main event this week was the Riksbank meeting , at which the Bank reiterated that it expected to raise interest rates in December. And data released since the meeting support the case for the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo makes the right noises Mexican financial markets have rallied this week following some business-friendly noises from left-wing president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), but we’d be wary of reading too much into... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Letting go of equities, holding the renminbi Chinese policymakers are intervening to stem market declines, but unevenly: they appear much more concerned about the currency than about equities. Meanwhile, worries about the domestic outlook... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
