Canada Economics Update PMI points to upside risks to growth and inflation Markit’s July PMI survey suggests that both GDP growth and inflation could increase to around 4% in the coming months. We doubt that either will rise that high, but the risks to the outlook seem to... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs that EMs are losing steam The fall in July’s EM manufacturing PMI adds to the evidence that economies across the emerging world are starting to lose some steam, while the breakdown of the surveys showed that price pressures... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI decisive amid inflation rise The RBI opted to tighten policy again today against a backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation. The swiftness with which the central bank has responded to the jump in inflation should prevent... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe made a soft start to Q3. What’s more, the surveys provide evidence that price pressures are building across most of the region. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recent weakness appears increasingly broad-based Data released in July revealed a wide-spread economic slowdown across most of Sub-Saharan Africa. The available figures mostly suggest that conditions improved more recently, but that growth remained... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What next for the Pakistani rupee? The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s central bank now likely to pause easing cycle The statement that accompanied today’s decision by the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates by 50bp suggested that the easing cycle has further to run. However, with inflation set to rise in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Underlying inflation in Brazil still soft The sharp jump in headline inflation in Brazil over the past month has masked continued weakness in core inflation. And underlying price pressures should remain fairly subdued over the next 12-18... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Temporary reprieve as EU-US trade tensions ease Given the openness of the Nordic & Swiss economies, their policymakers will have breathed a sigh of relief at the easing of trade tensions this week between the EU and the US. But should the current... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank leaves door open to easing The Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement once again sounded hawkish on inflation risks. But it also implied that interest rates could be lowered in 2019, supporting our view that the easing... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation in Nigeria, violence in Mozambique The available evidence suggests that fears of a pre-election surge in Nigerian inflation are misplaced. Elsewhere, we doubt that violence will derail gas investment in Mozambique and expect that... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stronger growth failing to boost inflation The fall in underlying inflation in the second quarter in Australia revealed this week has made us more confident in our non-consensus call that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s 2-3%... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tokyo CPI (Jul.) There was a broad-based rise in price pressures in the capital region last month. But while the rise in energy inflation won’t be sustained, the recent pick-up in underlying inflation has further to... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
