Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to pick up Inflation has been held back by plunging mobile phone costs and competition from online retailers. The main factor, however, are deeply engrained deflationary expectations among households and firms... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price gains remain driven by volatile fresh food and energy inflation while underlying inflation remains subdued. Price pressures should strengthen ahead of next year’s sales tax hike but... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO on hold, Bahrain debt fears ease Reports this week suggest that Saudi policymakers may be close to shelving the Aramco IPO, which would reinforce concerns that the country’s commitment to the Vision 2030 reforms is waning. Elsewhere... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to drop back towards 2% Headline inflation might surpass 3% in August, but by the end of the year it is likely to be little more than 2%. And with core inflation stable, the Bank is unlikely to pick up the pace of its... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
