Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation jumped again in August, reaching 17.9% y/y, and it is likely to rise even further over the coming months. The central bank has just stated that the inflation figures will prompt a... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hike this year looking increasingly unlikely The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no great surprise given the recent deterioration in the labour market. Looking ahead, with headwinds to growth... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fuel price hikes, equities soar, demonetisation failure Fuel prices have risen to record highs in most of India’s major cities in recent weeks. This creates a political headache for the ruling BJP ahead of next year’s general election. However, the price... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Tokyo CPI (Aug.) The third consecutive decline in industrial production in July suggests that growth will slow in Q3. Meanwhile, the tight labour market is starting to boost price pressures. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged up in July on the back of stronger food inflation, although underlying price pressures eased. We expect that headline inflation will rise a little further over the rest of this... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
