Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation on the rise EM inflation increased to its highest level in more than a year and a half in August, and we think that this has further to run over the coming months. One consequence is that the monetary policy in... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) The further decline in core inflation in September was a little disappointing and, against a backdrop of slower economic growth, will ensure that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle not over yet August’s rise in inflation and signs of weaker capital inflows swayed Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold last night but, if we are right in expecting inflation to drop back over the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank in no rush to raise rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375% against a backdrop of strong economic growth and low inflationary pressures. The fairly dovish tone of the CBC’s... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes likely in the Philippines Today’s 50bp rate hike in the Philippines comes in response to a further rise in inflation and is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We are expecting rates to rise by at least a further... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates set to be hiked again Ever since starting its rate-hiking cycle in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined by incoming data. With GDP growth surging to a two-year high in Q2 and... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation was unchanged between July and August but we still expect it to rise a little over the rest of this year as underlying price pressures pick up. 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks in tightening mode Central banks in Emerging Europe shifted into tightening mode this month as policymakers in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine hiked interest rates in response to pressure on their currencies. The Czech MPC... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
