Japan Data Response Tokyo CPI (Oct.) The jump in fresh food prices that lifted inflation in the Tokyo region to a ten-year high in October won’t be sustained. And with underlying inflation moderating yet again, the Bank of Japan’s 2%... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth slowed in Q3 After a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q3, from 3.5% y/y to around 2.8% y/y. In Russia and Poland, this slowdown has been relatively gradual and driven by weakness in... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region set for a temporary rebound The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa will gather pace over the rest of this year and in early 2019, but growth will peak sooner than most expect. Egypt’s cyclical upturn should continue... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation stabilised in September remaining unchanged at 4.9% y/y. We think that inflation has peaked and expect that the SARB will keep its key rate on hold at next month’s policy... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Sales tax hike is the nail in the coffin to tighter policy The Bank of Japan will probably lower its growth and inflation forecasts further at next week’s policy meeting. And it should reiterate its pledge to keep interest rates at current extremely low... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in October, from 52.5 to 53.1, suggests that the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 was just a blip. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Higher inflation to prompt Nordic rate rises The latest data suggest that underlying inflation is picking up in Sweden, Norway and Iceland and we expect the central banks in all three countries to respond by tightening monetary policy. In Sweden... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest tightening cycle not over yet The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting show that, despite keeping rates on hold, the MPC continues to place great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp drop in headline inflation will not prevent the Bank of Canada from following through with a widely-expected rate rise at its meeting next week. But further falls in... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) While underlying inflation didn’t rise any further in September, we think it will strengthen as firms pass on higher labour costs and domestic demand strengthens ahead of the tax hike. However... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
