India Economics Weekly Central bank independence at stake Rising tension between the government and the RBI has dominated headlines this week, and also caused jitters in local markets. This comes as little surprise - after all, at the heart of the matter is... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Don’t expect a change in rates for at least three years The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 8th November, with recent encouraging economic data making a cut less likely. Even so, we... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its horses until late in 2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it holds interest rates steady at 1.50% on Melbourne Cup Day, which falls on Tuesday 6th November... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Uganda: Inflation will remain within target Price pressures eased in Kenya and Uganda in October, and we think that inflation will remain within target in both countries. Kenyan policymakers will probably keep their key rate on hold in 2019... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) October’s increase in euro-zone inflation supports the ECB’s judgement that underlying price pressures are gradually building despite the slowdown in activity over recent months. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with a number of moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility for the central bank... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) The drop in inflation in the third quarter back below the 2-3% target rate won’t frighten the RBA too much, but it does look more like a scary Halloween trick than a treat. We believe the RBA will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank not inclined to tighten further The Russian central bank’s statement accompanying today’s Board meeting reinforces our view that September’s interest rate hike was intended as a one-off. Whereas the financial markets are pricing in... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix for Pakistan, Korea slowdown to persist Pakistan this week secured a US$6bn loan from Saudi Arabia and has plans to court Chinese money. These deals may help paper over the cracks, but they won’t solve the economy’s balance of payments... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget targets growth, while Nigeria tightens South Africa’s new finance minister used this week’s budget statement to signal a shift away from further austerity, suggesting that Pretoria is prioritising support for the weak economy. Nigerian... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
