Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates set to stay on hold in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia today left interest rates unchanged at 3.25% and gave no hint in its accompanying statement that it is in a rush to change its policy stance anytime soon. Whereas the consensus is... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in October following a renewed drop in food inflation. This may prove enough to keep the RBI on the side-lines in its meeting next month. But with core... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) October’s PMI data suggest that most of the major euro-zone economies will perform a little better in Q4 than in Q3. The exception is Italy, where the PMI implies that output contracted. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging phone charges another headwind for BoJ The steep cut to mobile phone charges announced by Japan’s largest wireless operator last week means that consumer price inflation may average only 1.0% next year rather than the 1.2% we had been... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Problems mount for Pakistan as Khan heads off to China Inflation can now be added to the list of problems facing Pakistan after figures published today showed headline inflation rose to a four-year high last month. Meanwhile, the chances of an improvement... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Figures suggest weak recovery in Nigeria & S. Africa Activity data released this week supported our view that economic conditions in Nigeria and South Africa were very weak in recent months. We think official GDP figures due out in late November and... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation trouble The slowdown in underlying inflation in the third quarter didn’t come as a shock to the RBA. But the bigger picture is that market forces are still keeping inflation subdued. And with early signs that... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
