Canada Chart Pack Core inflation set to fall further Two of the Bank of Canada’s three measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median, declined in November. As a result, an average of the three measures fell to 1.9%, the lowest in five months. Base... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the slowdown in inflation in November has further to run. And underlying inflation may not climb much above 0.5% even if domestic demand strengthens... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November’s sharp decline in headline inflation reflects the recent slump in energy prices. But with two of the three core inflation measures softening too, there’s even more reason for the Bank of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Key calls for 2019, and how we differ from consensus We expect Emerging Asia to grow at its weakest rate in 2019 since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With inflation also set to drop back, the regional tightening cycle is likely to come to an end... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Thanks to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the fall in inflation in November is likely to be the precursor to a larger fall in December. Inflation could even reach the 2% target, bringing some... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fall in inflation gives central banks breathing space The fall in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month was surprisingly sharp, which in part was due to lower oil prices but also (and more unexpectedly) a dip in food inflation. One... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch An uncomfortable wait for Brexit clarity In normal times, the MPC would be preparing the ground for another interest rate hike. After all, pay growth has picked up far more sharply than the Bank of England had anticipated. But as it is still... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in November and, taken alongside the drop in CPI inflation last month as well as the appointment of an ally of Prime Minister Modi as the new governor of the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
