Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Dec.) & Sweden Production (Nov.) December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Following the drop back in oil prices, consumer price inflation returned below 2% last month. Meanwhile, producer prices are now on the brink of returning to deflation territory. Slowing inflation is... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the euro-zone We are revising our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone and now expect GDP to increase by only 1% this year and a bit less in 2020. Core inflation is also likely to be around 1% this year... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation, from 4.7% y/y in November to 4.8% y/y in December, means that another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.50%) at next month’s meeting is still likely. However, this will... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The recent weakness of headline consumer price inflation, which we think dropped a little further in December, has undermined the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But we are more... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Dec. 18) & Riksbank Minutes The drop in headline inflation in Switzerland in December is a sign of things to come, as inflation is set to fall to just above zero in the coming months. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Riksbank’s... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The pick-up in wage growth in November has probably further to run as the unemployment rate declines ahead of the sales tax hike. But wages may not rise fast enough to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
