Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Mfg PMIs (Jan.) The increase in underlying inflation in the euro-zone in January is a rare piece of good news for the ECB. However, core inflation remains a long way below the ECB’s near-2% target and, given the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Policy paralysis While it is guaranteed that the Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates at 0.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 7th February, the accompanying Inflation Report may provide some crucial... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) Inflation remained below the lower end of the RBA’s target range in the fourth quarter and we think it won’t rise within the target band any time soon. And if GDP growth slows as sharply as we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, combined with the recent rally in the peso, means that we no longer expect a 25bp interest rate hike at next month’s... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to the middle of January will give the central bank room to hold off raising rates until there is more clarity on the government’s reform plan. For our... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in South African inflation in December adds to the evidence that the SARB’s much-heralded tightening cycle is now dead in the water. We expect that inflation will remain within target... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
