Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), Final Mfg PMIs (Feb.) The increase in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate, to 1.5% in February, will be of little comfort to the ECB given that it masks a small reduction in the core rate to just 1.0%. Moreover, the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Soft inflation points to rates staying low for longer Inflation has fallen across the region at the start of this year, and is likely to stay relatively soft in the coming months. One common driver of weaker inflation has been lower fuel inflation. But... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The Bank of Canada is unlikely to put a lot of weight on the sharp drop in headline inflation in January, given that it was caused by the notoriously volatile energy and airfare components. But if... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to keep rates on hold until beyond 2020 We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Higher services inflation a reflection of strong demand There is little evidence to suggest that inflation in the services sector is being boosted by “one-off” factors, as has been suggested by several MPC members. Instead, it appears to be a reflection of... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Shift in RBA’s stance increases chances of rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5th March. While the Bank should reiterate its view that inflationary... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed signs from the Swiss industrial sector The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
