US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) With headline CPI inflation edging down to a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% in February, from 1.6%, and core inflation dropping to a four-month low of 2.1%, from 2.2%, the Fed would appear to be... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) February’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting policy rates again next month. But the latest data underline the risks from the more dovish stance that the RBI has adopted... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb.) The slightly higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for February, of 3.9% y/y, was driven by a spike in prices in a few food products which should prove temporary. Copom will probably stick... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Swedish inflation in February lends further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep interest rates on hold at least into 2021. In fact, with core price pressures subdued, and a... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish CPI (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in core Norwegian inflation in February makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will increase interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. However... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean inflation data for February of 1.7% y/y (down from 1.8% y/y in January), means that we are increasingly comfortable with our forecast for rates to be left on hold at 3... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further large fall in Mexican inflation, from 4.4% y/y in January to 3.9% y/y in February, combined with another dip in core inflation, strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year. We are... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to remain low, rates cuts coming Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back sharply in recent months and is likely to remain low over the coming quarters. With growth also set to slow, we expect some central banks to start... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The reasonably small rise in Russian inflation, from 5.0% y/y in January to 5.2% y/y in February, is likely to offer further reassurance to the central bank that a recent VAT hike hasn’t fed into a... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in February even if, as we suspect, it rose a touch due to higher food inflation. As such, the RBI will almost certainly cut policy rates again, perhaps... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but with price pressures very weak and growth set to slow, we think that rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
