RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) South African inflation stayed low in February, and while it will probably pick up over the coming months, it will remain within target. We hold the non-consensus view that the next move will be a cut... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Diverging policy paths lend support to the krone Price pressures generally remained subdued in Switzerland and the Nordic economics in February. Core inflation is still stubbornly low in Switzerland and while it is higher in Sweden, it has now been... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s central bank set to keep rates low for longer Brazil’s new central bank governor, Roberto Campos Neto, inherits a benign inflation environment and we now think the Selic rate will be left unchanged at its current historic low of 6.5% until at... 19th March 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth likely to stop rising this year Euro-zone labour cost growth edged down in Q4 and, in contrast to the ECB, we don’t expect it to start rising again this year. This suggests that upward pressure on core inflation will remain muted. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell at an even faster pace in February than in January and we expect the Kingdom to remain mired in deflation for much of this year. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation target in question again The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss GDP to slow, Norway bucking the Nordic trend We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The slight rebound in February’s wholesale price inflation is unlikely to prevent the RBI from cutting rates again next month. However, there is good reason to think that underlying inflation will... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Producer Prices (Feb.) The rebound in underlying capital goods orders in January stands out as a positive amid the recent flood of downbeat activity data, but it is still consistent with a gradual slowdown in business... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
