US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) March’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting interest rates again at the next policy meeting. But with core inflation still elevated, the latest data underline the risks from... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation data for March, released this morning, lend further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep policy looser for longer than it and investors expect. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Higher food and oil prices pushed up headline inflation last month but broader price pressures remained subdued and we don’t anticipate an imminent turnaround in underlying inflation. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6%y/y in March, was driven by a rise in food and petrol inflation, both of which should prove temporary. Copom is likely to look through... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The relatively high Egyptian inflation reading, of 14.2% y/y in March, reduces the probability that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next meeting in late May. But if we’re right... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) The pick-up in core inflation pressures in Norway in March suggests that the Norges Bank will stay in tightening mode for now. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we think... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The rise in Czech inflation to a six-year high of 3.0% y/y in March was driven primarily by a pick-up in food inflation and probably is not enough to convince the central bank to hike rates next month... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The small rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.0% y/y, is likely to keep Banxico hawkish in the very near term. But the headline rate should resume its decline in H2, paving the way for interest... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) Chilean inflation picked up from 1.7% y/y in February to 2.0% y/y in March, but we still think that the central bank is unlikely to restart its tightening cycle until 2021. 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Russian inflation, to 5.3% y/y last month, should help to reassure the central bank that January’s VAT hike hasn’t translated into a marked strengthening of price pressures... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
