UK Data Response Consumer/Producer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) CPI Inflation rose back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in April for the first time since December. And while we suspect that inflation is likely to remain above 2% for the rest of the year, as... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa decreased to 4.4% y/y in April due to weaker core price pressures. We think that the headline rate will continue on a downward trend over the rest of the year. Combined with... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Rebound in productivity growth has further to run The unexpected 0.5% q/q rise in GDP and the 3% q/q plunge in total hours worked in the first quarter meant that productivity rose at its fastest pace in nearly four years. That makes sense because... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further easing of deflation in Saudi Arabia in April suggests that stronger activity in the non-oil sector at the start of this year is (finally) feeding through to a pick-up in price pressures. 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s modest rise in headline inflation to 2.0%, from 1.9%, was partly due to temporary factors so we expect inflation to edge back down in May. While base effects from last year mean that core... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The small pick-up in Swedish inflation in April was caused by the later timing of Easter this year. Amid signs that economic growth has slowed sharply in the first half of 2019, we expect headline... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in April will increase the clamour for another rate cut in June. But we think that underlying inflation will soon rise again, which underlines the risks... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further interest rate cuts in India look only a matter of time after headline inflation in April came in at a below-target 2.9% y/y. However, we continue to think that further monetary loosening is a... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Saudi Arabia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The subdued 0.1% m/m gain in core consumer prices last month was in part driven by falls in clothing and used car prices, which may be reversed in the coming months. But the bigger story has been the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.9% y/y in April, is unlikely to trouble Copom. The increase was driven by food, energy and administered prices; core inflation still looks soft. The... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) Norwegian inflation data for April, released this morning, remained well above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target and will reinforce policymakers’ current hawkish stance. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
