Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (July) The fall in Swedish inflation in July provides further confirmation, if it were needed, that the Riksbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo rate at its next meeting, on 5th September... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July, which followed a similar-sized gain in June, suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation held steady in July and remains comfortably below the central bank’s (RBI) 4.0% target, laying the foundations for at least one more interest rate cut later this year. But with... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (July) The fact that core inflation in Norway remained above target for the ninth month in a row in July will keep the Norges Bank in tightening mode for now. But with prices pressures set to ease, we think... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation into negative territory last month even as surging pork prices continued to push up consumer price inflation. Both have downbeat implications for the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (July) The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a further... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation in July is likely to be temporary and followed by chunky falls in the coming months. Accordingly, so long as the lira remains stable, the central bank will follow up last... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
