Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Despite drought, next rate move will be a cut Kenya’s drought will probably push inflation above the CBK’s target range in Q4. But bank will likely look through this spike, as it did in 2017. We think the next rate move will be a 50bp cut in Q4... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi consumer prices continued to fall in July, by -1.3% y/y, but a closer look at the data suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to build. The headline rate is likely to return to... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation fell in July despite a rise in underlying inflation. Allowing for the impact of policy moves, we think that underlying inflation will fall towards zero before long. 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 3.2% y/y, raises the likelihood that Copom will cut the Selic rate by 50bp (rather than 25bp) when it next meets on 18th September. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting suggest that the MPC’s larger-than-expected rate cut was intended in part to send a dovish signal rather than simply being a case of “front... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Jul.) As headline inflation and the Bank of Canada’s three core measures remained close to target in July, there seems to be little chance of the Bank springing a surprise by cutting interest rates in two... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation slipped to just 4.0% y/y in July, supporting our view that policymakers will cut their policy rate from 6.50% to 6.25% in September. This is a strongly non-consensus view. 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Further signs of a slowdown in the Gulf The latest data suggest that GDP growth in the Gulf economies slowed in Q2, which is partly a result of cuts in oil production but also softer activity in non-oil sectors. The early data for July... 15th August 2019 · 14 mins read
Core inflation more likely to decline than rise Despite the recent pick-up in wage growth, we continue to think that core inflation will decline over the next 12 months. 15th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising Polish inflation won’t prompt policy change The rise in Polish inflation to a seven-year high in July and likelihood that it will stay above target over the next 18 months will keep the focus of the MPC on tightening. But we don’t think this... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) July’s inflation figures may dampen speculation that the Bank of England will follow in the Fed’s footsteps and cut interest rates. With stronger pay growth and the fall in the pound likely to ensure... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
