Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in core CPI inflation to an 11-year high of 2.4% in August won’t stop the Fed from cutting interest rates again next week, but it does provide further reason to believe that market... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in August and remained comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4.0%. This is the last set of CPI data that will be released before the MPC next meets in... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of Swedish inflation in August pours even more cold water over the Riksbank’s forecasts for an interest rate hike over the next six months. We are sticking to our view that policymakers... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The decline in Egyptian inflation in August to a six-year low of 7.5% y/y makes it is almost certain that the central bank will follow up last month’s 150bp interest rate cut with further easing. We... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation further into negative territory last month while surging pork prices kept consumer price inflation elevated. With demand-side pressures on prices... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in inflation last month in... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 4.3% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will lower its policy rate by 25bp when it meets tomorrow. Soft underlying price... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) This morning’s release of Swiss inflation data for August confirmed that price pressures there remain almost entirely absent. It’s still a question of when, rather than whether, the SNB eases policy... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The steeper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August leaves the door wide open for the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively again when the MPC meets next week. We have pencilled in... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
