Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation was unchanged at 1.9% in September but, as some of the temporary factors that have been boosting inflation fade, we expect it to fall over the next six months. While core inflation... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Unchanged CPI inflation of 1.7% in September was softer than either we or the consensus (1.8%) expected which might delay interest rate hikes following a Brexit deal and increase the chances of rate... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation continued accelerating last month but core inflation held stable at a low level. With demand-side pressures on prices set to remain subdued in the coming months, we think that the... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in headline consumer price inflation in September won’t prevent another policy rate cut from the Reserve Bank, particularly since it was largely due to damage to farmers’ harvests rather than... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The weakness in wholesale price inflation in September is likely to persist until the end of the year and, although not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, supports our view... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging prospects Several large emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia and India, should emerge from recent weak patches over the coming quarters. But at an aggregate level, that will be offset by slowdowns... 11th October 2019 · 24 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat The boom and bust in supermarket sales around last week’s sales tax hike has been interpreted by some as a sign the government’s countermeasures are not working. Afterall, most food is exempt from the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The muted gain in core consumer prices in September illustrates that, even after the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, inflationary pressures are still well contained. In that... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The persistent weakness of underlying inflation in Sweden serves as further proof, if needed, that the Riksbank will have to shift to a more dovish stance over the next six months or so. As a result... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further drop in Egyptian inflation in September to a seven-year low of just 4.8% y/y means that the central bank will press ahead with its easing cycle over the coming months. We now expect a... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
