Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) While inflation edged up in Q3 we think the weakness in economic activity will cause it to fall again before long, prompting further easing by the RBA. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi consumer prices fell at their slowest pace so far this year in September and we expect the headline rate to return to positive territory at the start of 2020. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBA to launch QE as inflation weakens further Underlying inflation was moored well below the lower end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band even as the housing market was booming and the labour market was tightening. With the unemployment rate set to... 21st October 2019 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in inflation to a two-year low in September has further to run, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus. 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Divide and exit Mario Draghi’s last meeting as ECB president is unlikely to be the good-natured celebration of his achievements that he might have hoped for. Instead, attention will focus on the growing divisions on... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Record-low inflation compensation unlikely to persist Though government bond yields have rebounded over the past week, inflation compensation remains near record lows in the US and the euro-zone. In our view, this is unlikely to persist, especially in... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
