Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Oct.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia declined at their slowest pace so far this year in October and the headline rate is likely to return to positive territory soon. The prospect of fresh fiscal tightening... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Oct.) Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte health worries, Sri Lanka election If President Duterte is forced to leave office through ill health, Vice President Leni Robredo, who leads the main opposition party in the Philippines, would take over as president. We don’t know much... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the fact that the headline rate dropped to a 40-month low in October won’t go unnoticed. Another rate... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger 0.4% rise in consumer prices last month was mainly due to higher gasoline prices, with little sign of the September tariffs pushing up prices of consumer goods. If anything, underlying... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The first above-target inflation reading since July last year should not push the Reserve Bank of India off its rate-cutting course. While the headline figure is being driven by a spike in food prices... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer price inflation figures will do nothing to affect the Bank’s view – expressed at its meeting earlier this month – that interest rates will most likely be raised eventually if there... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation will continue to worry central banks There is no immediate threat of any country in Emerging Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation, but persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for central banks and will... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way The decline in Egyptian inflation to a 14-year low of 3.1% y/y in October raises the risk that the central bank lowers interest rates by more than the 100bp that we have pencilled in for Thursday’s... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Oct.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% into 2022, the persistence of above-target core inflation in Norway will ensure that it maintains a comparatively... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC’s inflation dilemma The People’s Bank is powerless to stop consumer price inflation jumping above its target without undermining its broader mandate to support growth and employment. Given this trade-off we expect the... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA indicates further easing may be needed By signalling that inflation will remain below the lower end of its 2-3% target band for the foreseeable future, the RBA signalled that further easing is on the cards. Our view remains that the Bank... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
