India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation rose sharply in November but we think it will moderate over the coming months as capacity shortages diminish. But we are not convinced that the Bank of Japan will respond by cutting... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Consumer Prices (Nov.) While the decade high for core inflation in November should mark the peak, it is another reason to think that, despite a further deterioration in the activity data, the Bank of Canada will remain on... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation figures will probably mean that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be content to sit on its hands at its meeting tomorrow. But unless the tone of the economic news improves... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Nov.) Nigerian inflation picked up again in November, driven mostly by rising food inflation. We think that the headline rate will continue to climb over the coming months and that policymakers will leave... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The further surge in headline inflation in November casts doubt on the possibility of further monetary easing. If the headline rate remains high above the central bank’s 4.0% target this month as well... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
