India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stagflation concerns are overdone There has been growing talk of “stagflation” in India following the release of December’s CPI data this week, which showed that headline inflation jumped to a five-year high. But we think these... 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer price figures showed that after a brief pause in November, inflation is back on a downward trend. This is likely to push the Monetary Policy Committee even closer towards a rate... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices in December suggests that the trend in underlying inflation is still close to 2%. With wage growth also moderating in recent months, there will be... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in headline CPI inflation to its highest since 2014 almost guarantees that the RBI will leave policy rates on hold at its next meeting in early February. And with core inflation likely to... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another false dawn for inflation? We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Dec.) We doubt that December’s decline in underlying inflation in Norway is the start of a trend. Given our view that the economy will regain momentum before long, the balance of risks is skewed towards... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
