Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation jumped to 6.1% y/y in July on the back of the tripling of the VAT rate from 5% to 15% and we expect it to hover around this level over the next twelve months. This, combined with the... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) While the rise in headline wholesale price inflation was expected, underlying price pressures appear stickier than we had initially thought. We think these will still ease over the coming months, but... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The unexpected jump in headline inflation last month was the result of core inflation being higher than we had anticipated. We suspect core inflation will eventually ease back due to the weakness of... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) Swedish headline inflation would have fallen further in July had it not been for temporary effects related to car rental prices. And while core inflation edged up from June, against a backdrop of... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jul.) The lagged impact of exchange rate movements will ensure that inflation remains above the Norges Bank’s target throughout the second half of this year. However, this effect will fade in early-2021 and... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to an eight-month low of 4.2% y/y in July, alongside easing pressure on the pound, means that we think an interest rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting is more likely than... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price rose last month following floods that disrupted agricultural production. Meanwhile, factory gate deflation continued to ease in July, reflecting the ongoing recovery in economic... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.4% y/y in July is likely to be followed by a further modest increase over the next few months, but this shouldn’t prevent the central bank from cutting the policy... 6th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) Turkish inflation eased by more than expected in July, to 11.8% y/y, but this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle. Indeed, with pressure on the lira building, the next... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (July), Manufacturing PMIs (July) Inflation in Switzerland now appears to have troughed, but it is set to remain frustratingly weak over the coming years and a headache for the SNB. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMIs from July suggest... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rebound in consumer prices last month confirms that the disinflationary impact of the lockdowns in March and April is now going into reverse, but inflation is likely to remain muted over the... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The pick-up in Swedish inflation in June was a bit larger than expected but it was driven mainly by energy effects and is not a game changer. And while core inflation also edged up from May, against a... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for policymakers, but the broad-based rebound in the headline rate challenges our view that price pressures will ease this year... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in India appears to be easing after an initial surge when the lockdown first came into effect. We expect headline inflation to continue falling towards the RBI’s 4% target, which should... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
