China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Long Run Focus Will inflation make a comeback? Although low inflation is likely to be the story over the next couple of years, the huge amount of policy stimulus could push up inflation further ahead. Central banks, in theory, have the tools to... 10th September 2020 · 27 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) Signs of rising domestic price pressures in Norway raise the chance of a hawkish shift by the Norges Bank at the next meeting. However, with imported price inflation set to peak soon, and services... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. But with... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation slipped last month on the back of easing food price inflation. But core consumer prices rose for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak and the ongoing recovery... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and Lebanon politics, Saudi corruption drive Political developments in Tunisia and Lebanon this week have raised hopes that policymakers can tackle their respective economic problems, but there remain plenty of reasons for caution. Elsewhere... 3rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) The current bout of deflation in Switzerland is likely to persist well into next year, and will continue to be a headache for the SNB, particularly given the recent rise in the franc against the US... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation was unchanged between July and August, at 11.8% y/y, but the lira rather than inflation is likely to determine the central bank’s next moves. If the lira’s recent stability proves... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Deflation in the Gulf to persist The coronavirus crisis has caused domestic demand across the Gulf to slump and deflation is likely to persist, with the key exception of Saudi Arabia. Most places are well placed to deal with the... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation close to peaking Ongoing virus-related supply disruptions as well as one-off factors such as phone tariff hikes have kept inflation higher than we had anticipated over recent months. But with food inflation set to... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Deflation set to deepen further The slump in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August was mostly driven by subsidies to domestic travel as part of the Go To travel campaign. But even when we strip out the impact of those subsidies... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
