Africa Economics Weekly Shades of debt relief, rand battered in risk-off mood The latest debt developments in Angola and Zambia show that, while there has been progress towards debt restructuring in the region, it will be an arduous path for most. Meanwhile, the South African... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation set to ease A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.1% over the first half of September, was mainly driven by higher food and fuel prices. We suspect that the central bank will look past this and cut its... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian food inflation pushed up the headline rate to 2.7% y/y in the first half of September but, with core inflation still extremely soft, we doubt the central bank will be... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Loosening cycle is not over yet We agree with market and analyst expectations that the Reserve Bank’s new-look MPC will keep rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 1st October. But with inflation set to drop... 23rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary The decision by Hungary’s central bank to leave its base rate on hold at 0.60% today highlights that the central bank is in a bind due to high inflation and concerns about the forint. Further interest... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
