Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in September was sharper than expected but, with price pressures likely to ease in earnest over the coming months, we think further policy rate cuts are... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more modest rise in core consumer prices in September, which came despite a further surge in used vehicle prices, suggests that the previous upward pressure on prices resulting from supply... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold at 4.0% today, but it is too soon to call an end to the easing cycle. With the economy in need of further support, we think the central bank will resume... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in September will only strengthen the hand of the dovish contingent of the Riksbank’s Executive Board. We think it is only a matter of time before... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation rose by more than expected in September but there are signs that it may now have peaked. We think it will drop in earnest over the coming months which will open space... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households spending more, RMB gains to continue Consumer spending continued to strengthen during the Golden Week holiday, helping to dispel some concerns about the lopsided nature of China’s recovery and providing a further tailwind today to the... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2020) The jump in Brazilian inflation, to 3.1% y/y in September, was almost entirely driven by surging food inflation. Food inflation is likely to continue putting upward pressure on the headline rate in... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle is not over yet It came as no surprise that the new MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today. But the relatively dovish tone of the statement, along with the dire growth outlook... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stabilisation in Mexican inflation at 4.0%, after four successive monthly rises, should dampen hawkish sentiment at Mexico’s central bank. We think there is scope for at least one more 25bp rate... 8th October 2020 · 2 mins read
