Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The further easing in headline and underlying inflation in Q3 are consistent with our view that weak inflation will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates into negative territory next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Although Mexico’s headline inflation was above the central bank’s target, at 4.1%, in the first half of October, with price pressures likely to ease and activity still weak, we think that Banxico’s... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) With CPI inflation just 0.5% in September and new COVID-19 restrictions darkening the economic outlook again, it’s hard to think of reasons why the Bank of England won’t launch another £100bn or so of... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
Record low inventory to weigh on home sales The main news this week was that home sales hit a record high in September. As inventory is at a record low, sales are set to moderate from here, but prices should keep rising. 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.) Core inflation is likely to edge up from the record low to which it fell in September. However, weak aggregate demand will keep it very subdued for the foreseeable future. 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems mount in Malaysia Malaysia’s economy has rebounded rapidly from the crisis. However, headwinds are growing. Having been on the verge of being eliminated, confirmed inflections have surged in recent days. Meanwhile, the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in September, to 13.7% y/y, will probably be followed by similarly high inflation readings in the coming months. The central bank is likely to keep its benchmark... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation dropped back to 5.7% y/y in September as food inflation eased and schools slashed tuition fees ahead of the new academic year. While the effects of July’s VAT hike will keep inflation... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation, weighed down by easing food price inflation, continued its decline last month. But core consumer prices rose again for the second straight month and factory gate... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts The weakness of Egypt’s inflation reading for September is likely to prompt another rate cut at the central bank’s (CBE’s) next meeting. With inflation persistently undershooting the CBE’s target... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
