Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero As expected, the Norges Bank did not set off any fireworks this morning, and the decision to leave its key interest rate on hold at zero was never in doubt. The economy is likely to prove... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion Back in June, we predicted that the Bank of England would expand quantitative easing (QE) by a further £350bn over the following 18 months (consensus £100bn). By announcing an extra £150bn of QE today... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The absence of price pressures in Switzerland will remain a headache for the SNB over the coming years. And with the ECB set to loosen policy again next month, Swiss policymakers’ focus will remain... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate edged up to 11.9% y/y in October and is likely to rise further over the coming months. This, combined with the recent sharp falls in the lira, means that the central... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.) The post-lockdown rebound in euro-zone GDP was stronger than anticipated, which provides some hope that eventually things may get back to normal more rapidly than feared. But in the meantime, the... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation may not weaken all that much Underlying inflation bounced back more strongly last quarter than we had anticipated and with the economy now opening up again, we’ve revised up our near-term forecasts. However, the Reserve Bank of... 30th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q3) The surge in quarterly inflation in Q3 only unwound some of the weakness in Q2 and we still expect underlying inflation to remain weak for years to come. 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Dovish MPC minutes suggest further easing likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting – in which policy was left unchanged – show that the MPC has turned more dovish on the inflation outlook and that it has reservations about the... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly COVID in South Africa, Nigeria protests, Zambia hopes The recent rise in newly recorded COVID-19 cases in South Africa appears to reflect higher testing more than anything else. But it’s a reminder that a renewed outbreak of the virus poses a major... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2020) The jump in Brazilian inflation, to a seven-month high of 3.5% y/y in the middle of October, was driven almost entirely by the ongoing spike in food inflation. This is likely to keep inflation high in... 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation dropped to zero September, and we think it be negative over the coming months before hovering around zero throughout most of next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
