Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries move to lift containment measures High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine... 26th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the Bank right to dismiss CPI-trim and CPI-median? We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s recent claim that CPI-trim and CPI-median are currently overstating underlying inflation, although their elevated level compared to CPI-common is mainly... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022 We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2021) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 9.3% y/y in the middle of August provides Copom with plenty to worry about and will keep it on course to hike the Selic rate by another 100bp (to 6.25%) next month. 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Inflation expectations – what to watch The inflation expectations of households, businesses and the financial markets will probably rise in the coming months as actual CPI inflation jumps to over 4.0% later this year. But as the rises are... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (August) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a weaker-than-expected 5.6% y/y in the first half of August, but the further rise in core inflation will continue to concern the central bank. We expect... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth and inflation easing a touch The flash PMIs for August confirm that growth in developed economies is slowing from a strong pace. This normalisation was always to be expected after the rapid post-pandemic revival, but the renewed... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Strong Q4 still on the cards With daily cases surging to unprecedented levels and states of emergency extended to mid-September this week, there may not seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel for Japan’s economy. However... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation concerns, economy off to a bad start in Q3 The latest batch of labour market data will have done little to ease the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) concerns that the coming rise in inflation could be sustained in 2022. But we are not... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
