India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in headline wholesale price inflation in October was largely the result of a jump in core inflation, which adds to the evidence from the latest CPI data that underlying price pressures are... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers The UK is one of the economies that stands to benefit the most from COVID-19 vaccines. As it has suffered by more than its peers on the way down, there is more scope for its bounce to be bigger on the... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Sluggish inflation may boost yen further We think that inflation in Japan will remain subdued while the pandemic will result in a rise in US inflation to above the pre-virus pace. With both the Bank of Japan and Fed likely to remain inactive... 13th November 2020 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected drop back in core inflation to 1.6% last month, from 1.7%, reflects continued subdued demand in the services sector. With the explosion in virus numbers likely to put further downward... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) The October inflation data from Sweden do not move the needle for policymakers. However, the persistent weakness of underlying price pressures is likely to remain a headache for the Riksbank over the... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) While Norwegian inflation edged further above target in October, it is set to fall back sharply in H1 2021 and so the Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates. 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in October, to its lowest since 2009. But this was almost entirely due to falling food prices – core inflation and factory gate inflation held steady... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rebounds set to falter; SNB navigating sub-zero life With further easing by the ECB set to arrive next month, or even sooner, we expect FX interventions to remain Swiss policymakers’ first line of defence. Next week, GDP data from Norway will confirm... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
