Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Vaccines won’t preclude looser policy The encouraging news about vaccines has led us to expect most restrictions in advanced economies to be removed by Q2 next year, allowing them to embark on steeper recoveries towards their pre-virus... 25th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: No respite for rents just yet Data for Q3 confirmed that while some office and industrial markets in the region recorded quarterly rental falls, weakness was still unsurprisingly concentrated in the retail sector. Core-CEE retail... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2020) Headline inflation fell sharpy in October due largely to last year’s sales tax hike dropping out of the annual comparison, and we think it weaken slightly further before recovering early next year. 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected rise in inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5%, was mainly due to higher food prices. While renewed restrictions related to COVID-19 could cause prices for some items to increase in... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP Inflation (Oct.) Headline inflation is likely to remain below zero for several more months and the COVID-19 restrictions in place throughout the euro-zone will keep core inflation close to zero too. 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in CPI inflation from 0.5% in September to 0.7% in October shows that inflation is well past its crisis low point of 0.2%. But while it will rise more significantly from next April, we doubt... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in CPI inflation from 0.5% in September to 0.7% in October shows that inflation is well past its crisis low point of 0.2%. But while it will rise more significantly from next April, we doubt... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 32 mins read
Long Run Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 33 mins read
