Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in Norwegian inflation in November was skewed by energy effects, but the decline in the core rate underlines that policymakers will be in no rush to raise rates. Meanwhile, the... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp drop in Mexican inflation to 3.3% in November was largely driven by a drop in food and fuel prices, although underlying price pressures also remained soft. With inflation likely to settle... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices fell year-on-year for the first time since 2009 last month. But this was almost entirely driven by a rebound in pork supply and isn’t evidence of faltering demand. To the contrary... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.3% y/y last month, was (again) the result of higher food inflation. But inflation in most other price categories fell last month which may help to ease... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ deal, Qatar blockade, Morocco and the IMF The past week has been dominated by the OPEC+ meeting and, while it has highlighted growing tensions with the cartel, it seems that the group is edging towards an agreement that involves a small rise... 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Nov.) The current period of deflation in Switzerland will start to ease in early 2021, and the headline rate is likely to edge back into positive territory by March. However, this won’t be a game-changer... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
