China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) December’s final HICP release shows that core inflation remained very weak across the board at the end of last year, with no signs that prices pressures are building. Inflation will increase in the... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in CPI inflation from 0.3% in November to 0.6% in December and in the core rate from 1.1% to 1.4% may represent the first step on a climb towards a peak of about 2.5% by the end of the year... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of... 19th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Energy price inflation to drive up headline rates Advanced economy headline inflation rates are set to jump by an average of nearly 2%-pts in the coming months as energy inflation picks up and, in some cases, the effects of last year’s temporary cuts... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy settings unchanged Having adjusted their policy settings in December, policymakers will be happy to sit out the meeting next week and repeat the mantra that they will do whatever is required to support the euro-zone... 14th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline wholesale price inflation in December was driven by a sharp fall in food inflation, while core inflation rose. Nevertheless, taken alongside the sharp drop in CPI inflation last... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of the outlook for US inflation Although US consumer price inflation remained low at the end of last year, we expect it to rebound before long. (See US Key Data & Events.) As a result, we suspect that inflation compensation will... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
