Europe Data Response France Flash CPI (Jan.) The surprisingly big jump in France’s headline inflation rate in January was primarily driven by a surge in manufactured goods inflation as winter sales were postponed by two weeks. This will be... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation on the rise The jump in consumer prices in Q4 largely reflects price hikes for items whose prices are set by the government. Even so, underlying inflation is holding up better than we and the RBA had anticipated... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2020) The rise in inflation in Q4 was partly driven by volatile movements but we think inflation will rise in earnest before long. 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed will be reassured by rising inflation expectations The rebound in market-based inflation compensation measures will not alarm the Fed since expectations are still relatively muted. Instead, Fed officials are more likely to view the rise as a welcome... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to keep surprising to the upside Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen much faster than most had anticipated. And with the share of underemployed workers nearly back at pre-virus levels, the risk of widespread job losses after the... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2020) While headline inflation dropped to an 11-year low in November, that was due to weaker energy and fresh food inflation. We expect inflation to recover over the coming months. 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in underlying inflation in Q4 is consistent with our view that the RBNZ will tighten policy in the years ahead. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
