India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in February to a two-year high will do little to dampen growing market expectations of rate hikes in the very near future. However, we still... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Markets are jumping the gun on RBI rate hikes Financial markets appear increasingly convinced that the RBI is on the cusp of monetary tightening, perhaps due to fears of a re-run of the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But India isn’t as vulnerable to a... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 5.2% last month makes it almost certain that Copom will begin a tightening cycle next week. While we’ve pencilled in a 50bp rate hike (to 2... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight pick-up in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in February still leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range but, if we’re right in expecting... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) A drop in food inflation caused by shifts in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant that headline consumer price inflation remained in negative territory last month. That said, broader price pressures... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.8% y/y in February, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. This trend has further to run in the coming months which, alongside the recent... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to a more than four-year high of 5.7% y/y in February is likely to be followed by another increase in March which poses a serious challenge to the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stage is set for a faster economic recovery India's economic recovery continues to proceed faster than we’d expected. We are revising our forecast for GDP growth this year to 13.5%, above consensus expectations of an 11% rise in output. With... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 15.6% y/y in February, is likely to mark the peak and we expect inflation to fall steadily over the next six months or so. But... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Inflation risks highest in the US While it is still early days, the ingredients for a sustained pick-up in inflation over the next few years seem to be falling into place in the US. It is a different picture in other developed... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber prices force builders to delay Record high lumber prices are leading to delays in housing starts, and as result the share of homes for sale that have not been started reached a record high in January. While that will constrain... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Does the inflation target need an overhaul? The debate over the RBI's 4% headline inflation target - which runs until next month and is currently being reviewed - has heated up this week. Some prominent government officials have suggested that... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
