Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose further to 19.6% y/y in September and core inflation partially reversed its recent decline, but political pressure means that the central bank is likely to cut... 4th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring food and energy prices to keep inflation high The spike in rural commodity prices should spill over into higher food inflation before long. And while the impact of higher energy commodity prices is less clear cut, we think electricity inflation... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Even if the US dollar falls back a bit further in the near term, we expect it to resume its recent rally in due course. 30th September 2021 · 7 mins read
CE Spotlight The rebirth of inflation? The debate over inflation has become polarised between those who expect a return to the 1970s and those who believe inflation is still dead. The reality is more nuanced and inflation outcomes are... 30th September 2021 · 9 mins read
China Chart Pack Power shortages another blow to global supply chains We still don’t have enough data to judge the extent of the disruption to China’s factory output from power rationing with much certainty. But with supply chains already stretched, even a modest hit to... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
CE Spotlight What would an era of higher inflation mean for currencies? We think that a return to a regime of higher and less stable inflation in many major economies would result in a rise in exchange rate volatility and, over time, the depreciation of the currencies of... 30th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
