India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 18.2% y/y in March, will probably reinforce the views of the hawkish minority on the central bank’s MPC. Our base case is that the majority of MPC members... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation fell to 4.9% y/y in March and, while the headline rate is likely to rise in Q2, we expect it to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fade. 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Wholesale Prices (Mar. 2021) The faster-than-anticipated acceleration in headline wholesale price inflation in March was driven by a surge in fuel inflation, but we think it should fall back soon enough. And with the recent jump... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons we think the euro will weaken further this year Although the euro has recovered some ground against the US dollar this month, we still expect it to weaken further against the greenback later this year. 12th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.1% in March was largely a result of rising energy inflation, which will be transitory. Even so, the central bank is clearly worried by above-target inflation and... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly QE or not QE isn’t really the question The RBI's new bond purchase programme announced this week has led to comparisons with quantitative easing (QE), but there appears to be some subtle differences. In truth however, it matters little... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price deflation reversed last month due to a jump in fuel prices and an uptick in core inflation. But evidence of intensifying price pressures was clearest in producer price inflation, which... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 4.7% y/y in March, was driven once again by higher fuel inflation. We think this trend has a bit further to run, but the central bank is likely to look... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.5% y/y in March, leaving it below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. There is a growing chance that, with the economy still... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long while yet The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today amid the surge in COVID-19 cases, and committed to keeping policy “accommodative to support and nurture the recovery”. Given this... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further rise in Russia’s headline inflation rate last month, to 5.8% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to follow up March’s interest rate hike with further tightening. We have pencilled in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation target maintained, external risks diminished Confirmation that the RBI’s current target of 4% headline inflation will be maintained for another five years is the best outcome from an economic perspective, as tinkering with it could have un... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Real yields and gold The latest pull-back in the price of gold to below $1,700/oz. has illustrated its greater sensitivity to US long- than short-dated real yields. We expect the price to fall further as the US real yield... 30th March 2021 · 5 mins read
